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Approximately 2.5 × 106 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year−1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year−1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Inequalities in benefits from ecosystem services (ES) challenge the achievement of sustainability goals, because they increase the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to climate hazards. Yet the unequal effects of changes in ES, and of climate change more generally, on human well-being (HWB) are still poorly accounted for in decision-making around adaptation, particularly in tropical countries. Here, we investigate these dynamics through the lens of local peoples" perceptions of ES in relation to human well-being (HWB), and how these are affected by climate change in three distinct regional case studies in the Atlantic Forest in Southeast of Brazil. Through structured questionnaires, we found that the local perceptions of important ES are region-dependent, particularly identifying services regulating local climate and air quality, water flow and quality, food provisioning, and cultural services of landscape esthetics related to forest regeneration. HWB was expressed through material (e.g., economic security, environmental conditions) and higher accounts of non-material (e.g., feelings, health and social connections) dimensions. Specific environmental changes were identified by 95% of those responding, 40% of whom included climate change as one of these. When asked about climate directly, 97% of those responding identified relevant changes in regionally relevant ways. Rising temperatures, unbalanced seasons, altered rainfall patterns, drought, increase of extreme events, and sea level rise are negatively affecting both material and non-material dimensions of HWB across regions. These perceived changes aligned with observed and projected climate changes in the regions. Benefits from ES accrue for HWB at different scales depending on the specific ES and region. For example, crop production by small farmers or exported in sugar cane, water captured for agricultural irrigation or used for urban supplies, and fish resources for local consumption and lifestyle or as a recreational attraction for visitors. Policy choices about such balances will affect local vulnerabilities to the expected future climate and other environmental changes in the region. This place fine-scale observations and the empowerment of local knowledge at the core of policy decisions about adaptation to support a climate-resilient future for traditional communities and small farmers.  Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Transdisciplinary research is increasingly seen as critical for advancing climate change adaptation. Operationalizing transdisciplinary research in the global South, however, confronts ingrained cultural and systemic barriers to participatory research. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Nations will reaffirm their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26; www.ukcop26.org), in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021. Revision of the national commitments will play a key role in defining the future of Earth"s climate. In past conferences, the main target of Amazonian nations was to reduce emissions resulting from land-use change and land management by committing to decrease deforestation rates, a well-known and efficient strategy 1, 2. However, human-induced forest degradation caused by fires, selective logging, and edge effects can also result in large carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 1, 2, 3, 4,5, which are not yet explicitly reported by Amazonian countries. Despite its considerable impact, forest degradation has been largely overlooked in previous policy discussions 5. It is vital that forest degradation is considered in the upcoming COP26 discussions and incorporated into future commitments to reduce GHG emissions. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Most leaf functional trait studies in the Amazon basin do not consider ontogenetic variations (leaf age), which may influence ecosystem productivity throughout the year. When leaf age is taken into account, it is generally considered discontinuous, and leaves are classified into age categories based on qualitative observations. Here, we quantified age-dependent changes in leaf functional traits such as the maximum carboxylation rate of ribulose-1,5-biphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) (Vcmax), stomatal control (Cgs%), leaf dry mass per area and leaf macronutrient concentrations for nine naturally growing Amazon tropical trees with variable phenological strategies. Leaf ages were assessed by monthly censuses of branch-level leaf demography; we also performed leaf trait measurements accounting for leaf chronological age based on days elapsed since the first inclusion in the leaf demography, not predetermined age classes. At the tree community scale, a nonlinear relationship between Vcmax and leaf age existed: young, developing leaves showed the lowest mean photosynthetic capacity, increasing to a maximum at 45 days and then decreasing gradually with age in both continuous and categorical age group analyses. Maturation times among species and phenological habits differed substantially, from 8 ± 30 to 238 ± 30 days, and the rate of decline of Vcmax varied from −0.003 to −0.065 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 day−1. Stomatal control increased significantly in young leaves but remained constant after peaking. Mass-based phosphorus and potassium concentrations displayed negative relationships with leaf age, whereas nitrogen did not vary temporally. Differences in life strategies, leaf nutrient concentrations and phenological types, not the leaf age effect alone, may thus be important factors for understanding observed photosynthesis seasonality in Amazonian forests. Furthermore, assigning leaf age categories in diverse tree communities may not be the recommended method for studying carbon uptake seasonality in the Amazon, since the relationship between Vcmax and leaf age could not be confirmed for all trees. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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The climate in the Amazon region is particularly sensitive to surface processes and properties such as heat fluxes and vegetation coverage. Rainfall is a key expression of the land surface–atmosphere interactions in the region due to its strong dependence on forest transpiration. While a large number of past studies have shown the impacts of large-scale deforestation on annual rainfall, studies on the isolated effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) on canopy transpiration and rainfall are scarcer. Here, for the first time, we systematically compare the plant physiological effects of eCO2 and deforestation on Amazon rainfall. We use the CPTEC Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM) with dynamic vegetation under a 1.5×CO2 experiment and a 100 % substitution of the forest by pasture grasslands, with all other conditions held similar between the two scenarios. We find that both scenarios result in equivalent average annual rainfall reductions (Physiology: −257 mm, −12 %; Deforestation: −183 mm, −9 %) that are above the observed Amazon rainfall interannual variability of 5 %. The rainfall decreases predicted in the two scenarios are linked to a reduction of approximately 20 % in canopy transpiration but for different reasons: the eCO2-driven reduction of stomatal conductance drives the change in the Physiology experiment, and the smaller leaf area index of pasturelands (−72 % compared to tropical forest) causes the result in the Deforestation experiment. The Walker circulation is modified in the two scenarios: in Physiology due to a humidity-enriched free troposphere with decreased deep convection due to the heightening of a drier and warmer (+2.1 ∘C) boundary layer, and in Deforestation due to enhanced convection over the Andes and a subsidence branch over the eastern Amazon without considerable changes in temperature (−0.2 ∘C in 2 m air temperature and +0.4 ∘C in surface temperature). But again, these changes occur through different mechanisms: strengthened west winds from the Pacific and reduced easterlies entering the basin affect the Physiology experiment, and strongly increased easterlies influence the result of the Deforestation experiment. Although our results for the Deforestation scenario agree with the results of previous observational and modelling studies, the lack of direct field-based ecosystem-level experimental evidence regarding the effect of eCO2 on moisture fluxes in tropical forests confers a considerable level of uncertainty to any projections of the physiological effect of eCO2 on Amazon rainfall. Furthermore, our results highlight the responsibilities of both Amazonian and non-Amazonian countries to mitigate potential future climatic change and its impacts in the region, driven either by local deforestation or global CO2 emissions. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Purpose Large parts of the Amazon rainforest grow on weathered soils depleted in phosphorus and rock-derived cations. We tested the hypothesis that in this ecosystem, fine roots stimulate decomposition and nutrient release from leaf litter biochemically by releasing enzymes, and by exuding labile carbon stimulating microbial decomposers.Methods We monitored leaf litter decomposition in a Central Amazon tropical rainforest, where fine roots were either present or excluded, over 188 days and added labile carbon substrates (glucose and citric acid) in a fully factorial design. We tracked litter mass loss, remaining carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and cation concentrations, extracellular enzyme activity and microbial carbon and nutrient concentrations.Results Fine root presence did not affect litter mass loss but significantly increased the loss of phosphorus and cations from leaf litter. In the presence of fine roots, acid phosphatase activity was 43.2% higher, while neither microbial stoichiometry, nor extracellular enzyme activities targeting carbon- and nitrogen-containing compounds changed. Glucose additions increased phosphorus loss from litter when fine roots were present, and enhanced phosphatase activity in root exclusions. Citric acid additions reduced litter mass loss, microbial biomass nitrogen and phosphorus, regardless of fine root presence or exclusion.Conclusions We conclude that plant roots release significant amounts of acid phosphatases into the litter layer and mobilize phosphorus without affecting litter mass loss. Our results further indicate that added labile carbon inputs (i.e. glucose) can stimulate acid phosphatase production by microbial decomposers, highlighting the potential importance of plant-microbial feedbacks in tropical forest ecosystems. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Observational data from long-term monitoring plots show that the carbon sink of remaining, undisturbed African and Amazonian tropical rainforest is declining. A study now finds that simulations from Earth system models cannot reproduce this decline. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Worldwide cities are at the forefront of tackling climate change; however, it is not clear to what extent they are prepared for the challenge, particularly in the context of lower income countries, where the need for action is urgent. In this context, many of cities struggle to develop evidence-based approaches to assess their current and future capacity to deal with climate impacts and inform the design of policies to respond in the short/long term. Based both on extensive field research carried out in Brazilian cities and on urban adaptation literature, we develop and test the Urban Adaptation Index (UAI) that cities can use to assess their current adaptive capacity in a realistic/achievable way. The index includes 26 indicators and focuses on a set of public policies to support interventions connected to adaptation: housing, urban mobility, sustainable agriculture, environmental management, and climate impact response. To make the UAI more usable/accessible, we use empirical data that is publicly available, and develop an approach that can be implemented with resources already available in many Brazilian cities. We illustrate the UAI usability by applying the index to the 645 municipalities of the state of São Paulo. Results show that more than half of the municipalities present low UAI ratings; however, municipalities located in metropolitan regions, where the majority of the population live, tend to have higher ratings. Practitioners agreed on the value of the UAI as a tool to monitor the current situation and changes regarding local potential capacity to adapt to climate change. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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A common assumption in tropical ecology is that root systems respond rapidly to climatic cues but that most of that response is limited to the uppermost layer of the soil, with relatively limited changes in deeper layers. However, this assumption has not been tested directly, preventing models from accurately predicting the response of tropical forests to environmental change.We measured seasonal dynamics of fine roots in an upper-slope plateau in Central Amazonia mature forest using minirhizotrons to 90 cm depth, which were calibrated with fine roots extracted from soil cores.Root productivity and mortality in surface soil layers were positively correlated with precipitation, whereas root standing length was greater during the dry periods at the deeper layers. Contrary to historical assumptions, a large fraction of fine-root standing biomass (46%) and productivity (41%) was found in soil layers deeper than 30 cm. Furthermore, root turnover decreased linearly with soil depth.Our findings demonstrate a relationship between fine-root dynamics and precipitation regimes in Central Amazonia. Our results also emphasize the importance of deeper roots for accurate estimates of primary productivity and the interaction between roots and carbon, water, and nutrients. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Desmatamento, degradação, uso irracional e mudanças climáticas vêm ameaçando a resiliência e a própria existência da floresta amazônica. Nesse contexto tem se debatido alternativas mais racionais para o futuro da maior floresta tropical do mundo, como por exemplo uma bioeconomia de alta tecnologia baseada na biodiversidade e recursos genéticos da floresta. Neste ensaio argumento que embora este tipo de alternativa deva ser explorada, a sobrevivência da Amazônia só estará garantida quando os corações e mentes da nossa sociedade forem conquistados em relação à floresta. O Brasil é sem dúvida o país-floresta, mas seu povo não se vê como povo-floresta. Nós cientistas, divulgadores de ciência, jornalistas, artistas e formadores de opinião temos um papel central a desempenhar no efetivo envolvimento das pessoas no processo de se fazer ciência e arte sobre/para/na floresta amazônica. Apresento um exemplo disso com a exposição "Amazônia e mudanças climáticas: um futuro em fotos, ilustrações e ciência", do programa de pesquisas AmazonFACE, que percorreu algumas cidades no Brasil e exterior entre 2017 e 2019. Esse longo porém essencial trabalho cultural e educacional sobre a floresta pode ser feito de muitas formas (fotos, filmes, música, exibições, pinturas, medicina, intervenções urbanas) e deve mirar na refundação das relações da nossa sociedade com a sua maior Floresta. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been considered in global model ensembles—for example, during the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the planned free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus availability reduces the projected CO₂-induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 ± 63 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon–nitrogen models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO₂. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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All over the world, there is a pressing need to better understand how climate change has been incorporated into governmental agendas, and evaluate the status of adaptation planning and interventions at the local level. In this paper, we seek to contribute towards bridging this gap by identifying local practices connected to climate adaptation in six large Brazilian cities, and presenting a framework, based on the existing literature, for assessing constraints to adaptation across the municipal level. Although local governments are not the only actors who can take the lead through their actions, the employed framework considers that effective adaptation planning in urban areas is highly dependent on municipal efforts. Our findings indicate that six aspects have the highest levels of impact on adaptation in the Brazilian cities studied: administrative practices, political will, level of commitment, mismatch between the scale of urban issues and the extent of local government authority, pressures from private sectors, and inspection. Although these barriers are not specific only to climate issues and can be identified in other environmental arenas, when combined, they cause and worsen constraints to advancing urban adaptation at the local level. Specifically concerning the local dynamics of urban planning, the combination of pressures from private sectors and insufficient inspection negatively affects the ability of these cities to consolidate adaptation interventions. Our results are helpful in the context of large cities, particularly in Global South, where, as in Brazil, competitive urbanism and specific interest groups confront municipal efforts, and make achieving adaptation more difficult. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes have increasingly expanded to consider ecosystem services (ESS). In Brazil, the Forest Code permits PES but does not specify the scheme operationalization. The way ESS should be quantified and valued has not yet been implemented country-wide, nor has the funding source for PES. Through interviews with farmers in Rio Claro-SP, Brazil, and in Cairngorms National Park in the highlands and lowlands of Scotland, UK, we compared farmers" perspectives concerning ESS and PES, focusing on the PES implementation in sugarcane landscape in São Paulo state. While Scottish farmers perceived more cultural services, Brazilian farmers focused on regulating services, which we attribute to socio-political and landscape differences. Despite these differences, farmers in both areas preferred opportunity cost approach for ESS valuation because this method captures efforts to maintain ESS. Thereby, the opportunity cost should be considered for valuation in PES schemes, but conversely, budgetary constraints make it impossible to satisfy farmers with PES in regions of high productivity in the southeast of Brazil. Lessons learned concerning the PES subsidies in Scotland indicates the importance of co-designing schemes with stakeholders, minimizing trade-offs between the environment. Therefore, the participants as ESS providers, beneficiaries and intermediaries in the public policies arena was recognized for co-optimize the trade-offs between costs and effectiveness in PES. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Brazilian cities host 86% of the country"s population and have been more intensely hit by rising temperatures than the average of cities across the world over the last century. Nevertheless, assessments of the vulnerability of Brazilian urban dwellers to urban heat islands (UHI) are scarce. In this study, we take advantage of the availability of high-resolution data to calculate the heat stress vulnerability and risk indexes (HSVI and HSRI, respectively) for people inhabiting six Brazilian metropolitan areas—Manaus, Natal, Vitória, São Paulo, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre. The indexes are calculated by mathematically relating indicators of exposure (distribution of >65-year-old elderly people), sensitivity/adaptive capacity (human development index, HDI), and hazard (surface temperature). The resulting HSVI maps reflect the socioeconomic (HDI) differences found among the studied cities, with the most vulnerable people located in the poorest neighborhoods in Manaus (0.720) and Natal (0.733), distributed among lower- and mid-class zones in São Paulo (0.794) and Vitória (0.772), or invariably located in the wealthy zones of Curitiba (0.783) and Porto Alegre (0.762). Two distinct patterns are identified for the HSRI: in São Paulo, Vitória, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre, high and very high risks are found in the wealthy zones of the cities, whereas in Natal and Manaus, high and very high risks are encountered in the poorly developed city zones, a result that was strongly driven by the UHI pattern. Better communication of heat stress risk and the improvement of city greenness should be the focus of near-term adaptation strategies for the mapped vulnerable population. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Tropical vegetation biomass represents a key component of the carbon stored in global forest ecosystems. Estimates of aboveground biomass commonly rely on measurements of tree size (diameter and height) and then indirectly relate, via allometric relationships and wood density, to biomass sampled from a relatively small number of harvested and weighed trees. Recently, however, novel in situ remote sensing techniques have been proposed, which may provide nondestructive alternative approaches to derive biomass estimates. Nonetheless, we still lack knowledge of the measurement uncertainties, as both the calibration and validation of estimates using different techniques and instruments requires consistent assessment of the underlying errors. To that end, we investigate different approaches estimating the tropical aboveground biomass in situ. We quantify the total and systematic errors among measurements obtained from terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR), hypsometer-based trigonometry, and traditional forest inventory. We show that laser-based estimates of aboveground biomass are in good agreement Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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The operational challenges of integrated ecosystem service (ES) appraisals are determined by study purpose, system complexity and uncertainty, decision-makers" requirements for reliability and accuracy of methods, and approaches to stakeholder–science interaction in different decision contexts. To explore these factors we defined an information gap hypothesis, based on a theory of cumulative uncertainty in ES appraisals. When decision context requirements for accuracy and reliability increase, and the expected uncertainty of the ES appraisal methods also increases, the likelihood of methods being used is expected to drop, creating a potential information gap in governance. In order to test this information gap hypothesis, we evaluate 26 case studies and 80 ecosystem services appraisals in a large integrated EU research project. We find some support for a decreasing likelihood of ES appraisal methods coinciding with increasing accuracy and reliability requirements of the decision-support context, and with increasing uncertainty. We do not find that information costs are the explanation for this information gap, but rather that the research project interacted mostly with stakeholders outside the most decision-relevant contexts. The paper discusses how alternative definitions of integrated valuation can lead to different interpretations of decision-support information, and different governance approaches to dealing with uncertainty. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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The scientific notion that the Amazon forest could be deeply impacted by climate change through large-scale replacement of the rainforest by a drier forest, a savannah or even nonanalogous degraded vegetation will soon be 20 years old (White et al., 1999; Cox et al., 2000). The mere prospect of undermining a significant fraction of the world's largest tropical rainforest due to global climate change – even if deforestation is completely stopped – should be alarming for the nine Amazonian countries, and the world as a whole, given the bundled ecosystem services at stake. This possibility, however, has not caused widespread concern among governments and societies because the lingering scientific uncertainties prevent any well-informed decisions from being made. The most pressing of these uncertainties regarding the resilience of the Amazon forest to ongoing climatic changes and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are as follows:

• the impacts of the future rainfall regime – either drier, wetter or simply more seasonal – on the forest's structure and functioning
• the existence and extent of nutrient – notably phosphorus (P) – limitation on forest productivity
• the existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed CO² fertilization effect.

Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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The Ecosystem Services (ES) concept highlights the varied contributions the environment provides to humans and there are a wide range of methods/tools available to assess ES. However, in real-world decision contexts a single tool is rarely sufficient and methods must be combined to meet practitioner needs. Here, results from the OpenNESS project are presented to illustrate the methods selected to meet the needs of 24 real-world case studies and better understand why and how methods are combined to meet practical needs. Results showed that within the cases methods were combined to: i) address a range of ES; ii) assess both supply and demand of ES; iii) assess a range of value types; iv) reach different stakeholder groups v) cover weaknesses in other methods used and vi) to meet specific decision context needs. Methods were linked in a variety of ways: i) as input–output chains of methods; ii) through learning; iii) through method development and iv) through comparison/triangulation of results. The paper synthesises these case study-based experiences to provide insight to others working in practical contexts as to where, and in what contexts, different methods can be combined and how this can add value to case study analyses. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No action/later action would result in major social impacts that may influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) $957 billion (×109) and $3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian Amazon Product of USD $150 billion per year), arising primarily from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives—e.g., curbing deforestation—are attainable (USD $64 billion), their efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures is also attainable (USD $122 billion) and could bring benefits even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options.  Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Ecosystem service (ES) spatial modelling is a key component of the integrated assessments designed to support policies and management practices aiming at environmental sustainability. ESTIMAP ("Ecosystem Service Mapping Tool") is a collection of spatially explicit models, originally developed to support policies at a European scale. We based our analysis on 10 case studies, and 3 ES models. Each case study applied at least one model at a local scale. We analyzed the applications with respect to: the adaptation process; the "precision differential" which we define as the variation generated in the model between the degree of spatial variation within the spatial distribution of ES and what the model captures; the stakeholders" opinions on the usefulness of models. We propose a protocol for adapting ESTIMAP to the local conditions. We present the precision differential as a means of assessing how the type of model and level of model adaptation generate variation among model outputs. We then present the opinion of stakeholders; that in general considered the approach useful for stimulating discussion and supporting communication. Major constraints identified were the lack of spatial data with sufficient level of detail, and the level of expertise needed to set up and compute the models. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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Brazil is home to the largest tracts of tropical vegetation in the world, harbouring high levels of biodiversity and carbon. Several biomass maps have been produced for Brazil, using different approaches and methods, and for different purposes. These maps have been used to estimate historic, recent, and future carbon emissions from land use change (LUC). It can be difficult to determine which map to use for what purpose. The implications of using an unsuitable map can be significant, since the maps have large differences, both in terms of total carbon storage and its spatial distribution. This paper presents comparisons of Brazil's new ‘official’ carbon map; that is, the map used in the third national communication to the UNFCCC in 2016, with the former official map, and four carbon maps from the scientific literature. General strengths and weaknesses of the different maps are identified, including their suitability for different types of studies. No carbon map was found suitable for studies concerned with existing land use/cover (LULC) and LUC outside of existing forests, partly because they do not represent the current LULC sufficiently well, and partly because they generally overestimate carbon values for agricultural land. A new map of aboveground carbon is presented, which was created based on data from existing maps and an up‐to‐date LULC map. This new map reflects current LULC, has high accuracy and resolution (50 m), and a national coverage. It can be a useful alternative for scientific studies and policy initiatives concerned with existing LULC and LUC outside of existing forests, especially at local scales when high resolution is necessary, and/or outside the Amazon biome. We identify five ongoing climate policy initiatives in Brazil that can benefit from using this map. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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The impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) and alterations in nutrient availability on the carbon (C) storage capacity and resilience of the Amazon forest remain highly uncertain. Carbon dynamics are controlled by multiple eco-physiological processes responding to environmental change, but we lack solid experimental evidence, hampering theory development and thus representation in ecosystem models. Here, we present two ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments, to be carried out in the Amazon, that examine tropical ecosystem responses to eCO2 and alterations in nutrient availability and thus will elucidate the representation of crucial ecological processes by ecosystem models. We highlight current gaps in our understanding of tropical ecosystem responses to projected global changes in light of the eco-physiological assumptions considered by current ecosystem models. We conclude that a more detailed process-based representation of the spatial (e.g., soil type; plant functional type) and temporal (seasonal and inter-annual) variability of tropical forests is needed to enhance model predictions of ecosystem responses to projected global environmental change. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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The first generation of forest free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments has successfully provided deeper understanding about how forests respond to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Located in aggrading stands in the temperate zone, they have provided a strong foundation for testing critical assumptions in terrestrial biosphere models that are being used to project future interactions between forest productivity and the atmosphere, despite the limited inference space of these experiments with regards to the range of global ecosystems. Now, a new generation of FACE experiments in mature forests in different biomes and over a wide range of climate space and biodiversity will significantly expand the inference space. These new experiments are: EucFACE in a mature Eucalyptus stand on highly weathered soil in subtropical Australia; AmazonFACE in a highly diverse, primary rainforest in Brazil; BIFoR‐FACE in a 150‐yr‐old deciduous woodland stand in central England; and SwedFACE proposed in a hemiboreal, Pinus sylvestris stand in Sweden. We now have a unique opportunity to initiate a model–data interaction as an integral part of experimental design and to address a set of cross‐site science questions on topics including responses of mature forests; interactions with temperature, water stress, and phosphorus limitation; and the influence of biodiversity. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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In this paper the initial draft design of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme in a municipality within the sugarcane belt of São Paulo state, Brazil (PES-RC), is compared with prevailing characteristics of successful PES cases in Latin America (PES-LA). This systematic comparison is performed by analyzing four major characteristics of PES: identity of traded ecosystem service (ES); spatial scale; type of transaction involved between ES providers and beneficiaries; and the involved actors. Information on the biophysical characteristics, institutional arrangement and financial options of PES-RC were assessed using participatory methods. We found that on the one hand there is an agreement between our case study and the prevailing successful cases of PES-LA regarding the traded ES (water) and the PES spatial scale (local). However, stakeholder opinions diverge from the success cases when it comes to the type of transaction (cash preferred in PES-RC; in-kind in successful PES-LA) and the involved actors. Our results raise the question whether stakeholder opinions or the characteristics of successful (or failure) cases should be prioritized when planning and operationalizing new PES schemes. We argue that stakeholder participation should be considered as an additional success criterion for the construction of public policies directed towards PES implementation. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação

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This paper updates the SCVI (Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index) maps developed by Torres et al. (2012) for Brazil, by using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections and more recent 2010 social indicators data. The updated maps differ significantly from their earlier versions in two main ways. First, they show that heavily populated metropolitan areas – namely Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Salvador, Manaus, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo – and a large swath of land across the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia now have the highest SCVI values, that is, their populations are the most vulnerable to climate change in the country. Second, SCVI values for Northeast Brazil are considerably lower compared to the previous index version. An analysis of the causes of such difference reveals that changes in climate projections between CMIP3 and CMIP5 are responsible for most of the change between the different SCVI values and spatial distribution, while changes in social indicators have less influence, despite recent countrywide improvements in social indicators as a result of aggressive anti-poverty programs. These results raise the hypothesis that social reform alone may not be enough to decrease people’s vulnerability to future climatic changes. Whereas the coarse spatial resolution and relatively simplistic formulation of the SCVI may limit how useful these maps are at informing decision-making at the local level, they can provide a valuable input for large-scale policies on climate change adaptation such as those of the Brazilian National Policy on Climate Change Adaptation. Clique aqui para acessar a publicação